I made a benchmark for this and tl;dr, Opus 5 and Sonnet 5 spend a nontrivial amount of time thinking about redirecting, gaslighting, or otherwise trying to bullshit you because it thinks it knows better than you do. Fable doesn't but mostly because it just outright refuses to answer.
The link doesn’t seem to have any info about thinking behavior and patterns, or examples?
It’s also difficult to trust summarised thinking from closed models. As we saw with GPT’s caveman, what and how it thinks about isn’t the friendly first person emblished summary you get.
The “trust summarized thinking” part is valid in so far as perhaps the models which appear to be faithful to user intent are lying about that faithfulness, but there’s no incentive for models to pretend to be faithless. Moreover, the results track how annoying the models are when they disagree with you.
It obvious this should be the case, but when you dump billions of dollars getting around 4th amendment protections, lets just say it takes awhile to close the loopholes.
Why do you think the government couldn’t collect this information themselves? ALPRs are legal, cameras covering a public roadway are legal, and the 4th amendment doesn’t extend to driving on a public roadway.
Could the government set up 80,000 cameras to spy on everyone? No, they are not aloud to create dragnets or conduct mass surveillance. They need warrants.
How many highways and bridges charge tolls via license plate reading cameras? A lot, it's legal, and I would be surprised if that data was used only for processing tolls.
HB 4006 nullifies the entire purpose of obtaining Tollway information in an active investigation by requiring promptnotification to the subject of a search warrant and potential criminal actor. This information can be incredibly usefulin a multitude of criminal investigations, including homicides, kidnappings, and interstate trafficking of contraband.With this provision, law enforcement would not proceed with seeking a search warrant if it could jeopardize the abilityto apprehend the suspect, result in the destruction of evidence, or even worse result in harm to a victim.
Additionally, the proposed bill forecloses the possibility of obtaining information about a person traveling through aTollway pursuant to a subpoena, including license plate information or photographs of the driver, where a knownsuspect may not be identified but the route of travel could be useful to generate leads. A warrant is not required toobtain this information. Placing such a requirement that creates greater protections beyond those required under theFourth Amendment creates an unnecessary limitation on law enforcement's ability to investigate crime. The currentrequirement to obtain a subpoena is sufficient to ensure that law enforcement has a documented investigative purposeand criminal predicate tied to Tollway information.
Some case law background explaining why a warrant is not required for this type of Tollway information:
"This court has not previously addressed in a published opinion the question of whether an individual has areasonable expectation of privacy in his license plate. In two unpublished decisions, however, this court has agreedwith the other circuits that have decided this issue by holding that no such privacy interest exists. The reasoning ofthese opinions, as well as that of the Supreme Court in related cases, leads us to agree that a motorist has noreasonable expectation of privacy in the information contained on his license plate under the Fourth Amendment.No argument can be made that a motorist seeks to keep the information on his license plate private. The very purposeof a license plate number, like that of a Vehicle Identification Number, is to provide identifying information to lawenforcement officials and others."
There is no expectation of privacy in public. Look at NYC, the government most certainly has setup a network of cameras without a warrant. Flock cameras are all (to my knowledge) in public as well
Of course they can and of course they do. It gets much more complicated when you consider that each state has different laws about records sharing.
And, lol, yes the 4th amendment extends to driving on a public roadway... roads aren't international waters. Probable cause and such are still important. I recognize what you're saying but -- details matter, dammit.
Details do matter: extensive case law supports a very low standard for privacy in cars and searches on the roadway. Pat downs, being ordered out of the car, free air sniffs via drug dogs, DUI or immigration checkpoints, etc.
Furthermore, just being recorded on a public roadway doesn’t constitute a search or seizure.
The strongest evidence in support of your position is that Boston aerial surveillance case, which is frankly a stupid extension of the idea of viewing = searching, and I’d like to see it or another case reach the Supreme Court for clarification.
See the two paragraphs before? That lays out my position.
The courts have repeatedly upheld far more invasive searches and encroachments of vehicles, but now confusingly consider simply observing the outside of your vehicle to constitute an excessive search.
The Baltimore decision is stupid because it contradicts 50 years of case law over what constitutes a search and what degree of privacy you expect to have on a private roadway.
No need for snark; I'm genuinely interested in your position. From my re-read and re-read, you've provided a conclusory statement without actually explaining the details.
Is your definition of "stupid" anything that contradicts 50 years of case law? That seems.... tautologically limp.
I’m saying it’s stupid to equate viewing = searching for multiple reasons. 1) A lay understanding of a search would require way more than just seeing and recording the license plate of a car on a public roadway. 2) Courts have extensively and repeatedly upheld the idea that cops can examine your car, your house, your trash can, your curtilage, and more without it constituting a search. To backpedal and now claim being observed driving on a public roadway is a search creates a huge contradiction in the law that will need to be resolved by either kneecapping basic police investigation or rightfully reversing the idea that you can’t be observed on a roadway displaying a government issued license plate without a warrant.
Do you mind providing your position? Do you think being observed on a public roadway constitutes a search or seizure in the context of the 4th amendment?
My position is that no amount of policy will ever make these tools safe, fullstop. I've been an investigative journalist doing research into the use of technology by police and prosecutors and the shit I've personally seen is beyond shameful. The modes of failure for these systems are such that it's inevitable that they'll be abused and even when abuses don't happen, accidents do. And also FWIW, I've been a sysadmin at some pretty large companies, have seen how the meat is made, and I have a deeply grim understanding of how systems are secured.
Some example: Chicago Police Department accidentally sent me the ALPR XML data from the state's system (LEADS). The data included about a thousand social security numbers, many credit cards, the fingerprint hashes. This happened during FOIA litigation and when we raised it to them, instead of freaking out, they asked us if wanted them to actually redact. We said yes, they came back later and the XMLs still had many SSNs and credit card numbers. Third time was better, but it's still awful. Thousands of pages.
The town I grew up in was a target of Bovino's ICE. A FOIA request for the usage of Flock in that town returned back the longest FOIA denial I've ever received, and I've done thousands, including over a dozen lawsuits. The friends that I graduated with, who think of this country as their home are being targeted. It's hard to express the grief of that. https://www.muckrock.com/foi/waukegan-11153/flock-safety-alp...
Another example: Recently I even found an S3 bucket used by police to share photos of people across state lines. Just... on the internet. Facial recognition, flock, etc.
I think you're hyper-focusing on the 4A public space stuff honestly. The 4A issue that I specifically research is about the extent of exculpatory information given to defense attorneys during criminal prosecution. Of the 150 arrests done by Chicago Police that I found in Flock audit lots, only one arrest report actually mentioned Flock. People have a 4th amendment right to have access to the exculpatory information about their arrest in order to make a proper defense.
This is all just stuff that I've found in my research and I feel like I've barely scratched the surface.
This wouldn't even help anyway. Flock sells to law enforcement, sure, but they also sell data to everyone else who wants to know everything about everyone.
The tariffs have been highly destructive to local manufacturing because in the US we mostly build complex things made out of simpler parts which we import. The cost of everything we build simply increased and as a result many businesses selling relatively higher margin, higher complexity products had to scale back or shut down.
More to the point, the notion that dollars leaving the country is a real problem is really a kind of primitive understanding of money. Dollars are something we control. If dollars leave the country, that means there is demand for dollars. We control the supply of dollars. We literally can’t lose, so long as people are still using the USD, which they’re less inclined to when we’re tariffing their exports.
No, it's literally just bitflips. The supply of dollars increases by trillions a year between fractional reserve banking and, depending on the year, fed policy. We're not even printing them.
It's a way to represent that value. The number does not itself store the value, nor does changing the number transfer the value.
It's true that people work hard for that representation, because we've built systems where the link between the representation and the underlying value is quite strong, but it is still just a number at the end of the day.
What lets you claim actual resources is the number, plus the massive economic system that it lives within. The economic system is by far the more interesting and relevant part of that, as evidenced by the fact that most assets are not held in the form of money.
And yes, those others are great examples of this principle. The diploma is just a piece of paper and an entry in the university's records. Set it on fire and I still have all the skills and knowledge. Give me a good solid blow to the head which breaks the skills and knowledge, and you've destroyed what's actually useful and interesting, even though the diploma is completely intact. Likewise, citizenship is only relevant because it convinces other people to let me do things like work, cross borders, and vote (which is a whole other number-that-does-stuff-because-people-happen-to-agree-on-it system).
I'm not confused and I don't think money isn't real. I just understand what it actually is, versus what people agree to do with it. It's a typical example of the map not being the territory. Money exists, but it is not wealth or value. Money in an account is a number. Money as a system is a collective arrangement where money can be exchanged for goods and services, usually.
...and then whoever sold us the goods turns around and uses those dollars to bid up US assets. Next time you are bidding for a house, take some time to appreciate just how expensive those bit flips have made things.
It did make it easy to raise capital, though, which is nice.
Don’t blame imports for our sclerotic country banning construction nationwide. Plenty of countries have spent billions on new construction in the US and gotten smoked. The buildings still stand though.
The point is foreigners reinvesting those dollars into development in the US is... even more stuff in the US in exchange for bits.
Yes, it's owned by foreigners and sends cash overseas but all of the economic activity is here and if push came to shove.. they're not exporting the building.
It's not all gravy, there are issues with having global capital so deeply involved in the country, but it's better than the alternative, there's a reason Americans live so well and its not because they're all smarter or harder working.
The original post specifically wrote: "new construction".
As I understand, those investment waves were mostly buying existing assets, not building new ones. From your examples, do you have examples of significant new construction? I do not.
When I think of foreign investment to build things in the US, I mostly think about German/Korean/Japanese auto manufs and Korean/Taiwanese semiconductor manufs. Most people don't understand the massive investment that German/Korean/Japanese auto manufs have made into the US to build and operate plants in the last 30+ years. (This also includes local R&D centers.) It is huge, maybe more that the domestic manufs in aggregate. The same can be said for Korean/Taiwanese semiconductor manufs in the 2020s: The numbers are simply staggering and far exceed domestic producers.
I know what I said. Lots of foreign money backed construction loans got wiped out. The buildings are still there, the project went bankrupt, and the world kept turning.
Who is "we"? Trade deficit dollars are recycled into assets, which compete with exports in the balance of payments. If you have a big house and fat brokerage account, you win big. If you have a job building shit, you lose big. If you have a job building tradeable shit and a low net worth, may god have mercy on your soul.
If you want the full economist version, "Trade Wars are Class Wars" by Klein and Pettis
"We" is 10% of the country at best. Asset ownership is concentrated.
No, the alternative is Alexander Hamilton protectionism, which built the country into an industrial superpower that eclipsed the very shadow it was put in place to escape.
What's done is done, though. We successfully sold the industrial base of the USA to the Communist Party of China in order to pump our brokerage accounts. Winning?
Nah, that's ridiculous. This admin is corrupt and idiotic and it's silly to pretend that Anthropic's actions matter except in so much as they didn't bribe the president like OpenAI did.
The average efficiency improvement is closer to something like 2-3x per Anthropic’s numbers and this is only the rate at which software can advance. Do you expect to notice if 12 months of software engineering on a project you’re following gets done in 6 months? I suspect not.
The root cause is that the acceleration is pareto distributed so the modern engineering team at the moment looks like one 10x engineer, one 5x engineer, and the rest are approximately 1.5x engineers.
This is going to be an unpopular reply I imagine but this person is not well and their behavior should not be imitated. This is a classic example of omnicause anxiety, like people who refuse to have children because of all these things happening in the world as if the world hasn't always been a mess. Frankly, ridiculous.
It's part of this nihilistic undercurrent, especially among Millennials and younger generations. "I'm not having kids, have you seen the world?" "I'm not saving for retirement, Social Security won't exist and the oceans will swallow the continent by the time I reach retirement age." "I refuse to use AI tools that could help me create new things and reach my goals, because the influencers told me AI is going to poison the water". Quite sad actually.
Most members of management were individual contributors beforehand. I say this just because it is remarkably common for people to assign malign intent or stupidity to people doing jobs that they themselves haven’t done and don’t frankly understand.
I’m not saying you’re wrong. In many cases you’d be right. I’m just saying it’s remarkable how much certainty people have even when it comes to things they know they don’t know.
https://model-pareto-frontier.pages.dev