| | By 2029 no computer or "machine intelligence" will have passed the Turing Test (longbets.org) |
| 2 points by tetris11 7 days ago | past | discuss |
|
| | The Record: Predictions (longbets.org) |
| 3 points by EndXA 16 days ago | past |
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| | The original URL for this prediction will no longer be available in 11 years (2011) (longbets.org) |
| 210 points by doubletwoyou 33 days ago | past | 101 comments |
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| | By December 31, 02026, autonomous vehicles will be banned from public roadways (2021) (longbets.org) |
| 9 points by 1970-01-01 9 months ago | past | 8 comments |
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| | In 2002, Mitch Kapor bet $20k that no AI would pass the Turing Test before 2029 (longbets.org) |
| 2 points by aleda145 11 months ago | past | 1 comment |
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| | LongBets 1: By 2029 no computer will have passed the Turing test (2002) (longbets.org) |
| 3 points by martincmartin on July 7, 2025 | past |
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| | By 2035 there will be at least one protest about turning off an AI (2023) (longbets.org) |
| 2 points by Mistletoe on May 20, 2025 | past | 1 comment |
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| | Long Bets: The Arena for Accountable Predictions (longbets.org) |
| 1 point by Olshansky on Jan 28, 2025 | past |
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| | By 2029 no computer will have passed the Turing Test (2002) (longbets.org) |
| 2 points by simonebrunozzi on Dec 15, 2022 | past |
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| | By 2029 no computer / “machine intelligence” will have passed the Turing Test (longbets.org) |
| 2 points by dane-pgp on June 13, 2022 | past | 2 comments |
|
| | Longbet: By 2027, software will be metered/sold by the second (longbets.org) |
| 79 points by collegeburner on Feb 27, 2022 | past | 118 comments |
|
| | Long Bets: The Arena for Accountable Predictions (longbets.org) |
| 2 points by DenverCode on May 8, 2021 | past |
|
| | By 2012, scientists will have announced a cure for breast cancer (2006) (longbets.org) |
| 59 points by breck on April 1, 2021 | past | 98 comments |
|
| | Warren Buffett's bet against hedge funds at the Long Now Foundation (2008-17) (longbets.org) |
| 110 points by mooreds on Feb 28, 2021 | past | 129 comments |
|
| | Long Bets (longbets.org) |
| 1 point by yunruse on Dec 30, 2020 | past |
|
| | Longbets: A bioerror will lead to one million casualties by Dec 2020 (longbets.org) |
| 137 points by emmelaich on Dec 10, 2020 | past | 193 comments |
|
| | Long Bets (longbets.org) |
| 3 points by elsewhen on Dec 8, 2020 | past |
|
| | Long Bets: The Arena for Accountable Predictions (longbets.org) |
| 2 points by aaossa on July 29, 2020 | past |
|
| | Long Bets (longbets.org) |
| 3 points by _zhqs on July 19, 2020 | past |
|
| | The Arena for Accountable Predictions (longbets.org) |
| 2 points by gballan on Oct 10, 2019 | past |
|
| | In 2027, at least 7 out of the top Tiobe languages will be Tree Languages (longbets.org) |
| 2 points by breck on Sept 24, 2019 | past | 8 comments |
|
| | Long bet: governments will recognize the human right of mobility (longbets.org) |
| 1 point by jobigoud on Aug 8, 2019 | past |
|
| | Large Hadron Collider Will Destroy Earth (longbets.org) |
| 3 points by tosh on Sept 17, 2017 | past |
|
| | On the Record: Long Bets (longbets.org) |
| 1 point by ZeljkoS on Sept 14, 2017 | past |
|
| | Long Bets (longbets.org) |
| 2 points by dedalus on March 5, 2017 | past |
|
| | “A profitable video-on-demand service aimed at consumers by 2010.” (longbets.org) |
| 2 points by refrigerator on Jan 4, 2017 | past |
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| | Buffett vs. Protege LLC: Over 10-year period S&P 500 will outperform hedge funds (longbets.org) |
| 2 points by koolba on May 17, 2016 | past |
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| | “A profitable VOD service will offer up to 5M subscribers by 2010” (2002) (longbets.org) |
| 1 point by shubhamjain on Jan 30, 2016 | past |
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| | By 2029 no computer or “machine intelligence” will have passed the Turing Test (longbets.org) |
| 55 points by fhinson on March 29, 2015 | past | 79 comments |
|
| | Long bets (longbets.org) |
| 4 points by cr4zy on Dec 14, 2014 | past |
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| More |
