It's a really interesting article. I'm not sure if he's missing some more likely and fundamental consequences.
1. Travel time and thus speed are less important. So driving will become slower, safer, more fuel economical. BTW this will increase utilization because people will be in transit longer per trip.
2. People will travel more and for new reasons. E.g. I might hop in a car and tell it to go somewhere scenic while I work. This is going to increase utilization and possibly increase fuel consumption.
3. People will install beds in their cars or switch to bigger more comfortable vehicles. You can now sleep on the road (overnight travel). Another huge increase to utilization and fuel consumption. Bad for hotels.
4. People will accept longer commutes since they can read, sleep, work, etc. en route leading to further expansion of suburbia.
Key message: more people driving more miles for more reasons at lower speeds.
Just the idea of owning one car and sending it home for the wife to use is hardly full of win. Better yet we all share public autocars, but that smells of communism and many Americans will never wear it.
Far from increasing efficiency through greater utilization, I see self driving cars as turning cars into mobile houses and becoming more personalized and used far more.
"If some of my homes had been more like my car, I probably wouldn't have traveled this far." Paul Simon.
Right but aside from a few older cities most people only use a shared car when away from home. Giving up a personal car for daily use is probably not going to happen in the US without a major cultural shift.
Driving cross country without driving sounds awesome really. About the only thing I minded about going to Burning Man was the drive there. We were all tired (scary) and I'd much rather have just sat and enjoyed my friends (and sleep) for the 36 hour trip.
We did an RV actually. Main problem is loading up all the gear needed for Burning Man. Between 5 people's gear we literally stuffed the RV. The water alone weighed a few hundred pounds. Most Greyhounds and similar are pretty limiting for luggage in that respect.
Touche. I guess the other option is amphetamines or other stimulants then, and given that it's burning man, not terribly beyond the realm of possibility.
Every day on my commute. And once or twice a year I like to either take a green tortoise tour, or play "greyhound roulette" which entails going to a bus station, writing down the next 5 destinations on scraps of paper, shoving them in my pocket, then grabbing one scrap and buying the corresponding ticket.
1. Travel time and thus speed are less important. So driving will become slower, safer, more fuel economical. BTW this will increase utilization because people will be in transit longer per trip.
2. People will travel more and for new reasons. E.g. I might hop in a car and tell it to go somewhere scenic while I work. This is going to increase utilization and possibly increase fuel consumption.
3. People will install beds in their cars or switch to bigger more comfortable vehicles. You can now sleep on the road (overnight travel). Another huge increase to utilization and fuel consumption. Bad for hotels.
4. People will accept longer commutes since they can read, sleep, work, etc. en route leading to further expansion of suburbia.
Key message: more people driving more miles for more reasons at lower speeds.
Just the idea of owning one car and sending it home for the wife to use is hardly full of win. Better yet we all share public autocars, but that smells of communism and many Americans will never wear it.
Far from increasing efficiency through greater utilization, I see self driving cars as turning cars into mobile houses and becoming more personalized and used far more.
"If some of my homes had been more like my car, I probably wouldn't have traveled this far." Paul Simon.